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Statistical Relationship Between Unemployment and Crime

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  • Statistical Relationship Between Unemployment and Crime

    I am setting out below my analysis of why I believe crime rates are set to explode, as set out in my recent Blog of 24 January 2014:
    'Crime. I ran a statistical analysis of unemployment rates and assaults resulting in serious injury for 107 countries based on United Nations data. There is a clear (statistically significant) relationship: the higher the unemployment rate, the higher the expected crime rate. Each 1% increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a 0.022 per 1000 of population increase in the rate of assaults.
    What does this all mean, now and in the future?
    Currently, the unemployment rate in a typical country is 8.4% and there are typically 0.6 assaults for every 1000 people.
    As I mentioned in my Blog of 22 January, most young people today are unemployable. They cannot do office work, nor menial work, nor do they have a trade. This is because of poor health and poor intelligence caused by various factors that were not there amongst the older generation:
    • Listening to music (ie noise) constantly
    • Drinking a lot of liquids
    • Doing too much homework
    • Doing more sports
    • Not having enough sugar.
    I talk about why these factors have such tragic consequences elsewhere. Hence 50% of young people will never work in their lives and another 30% will have such poor health that they will find work but then lose their jobs soon afterwards. As more and more young people enter the labour force, unemployment rates will start to rocket, from 8% today to about 25% in 15 years and 40% in 25 years’ time.
    The consequence of mass unemployment in a community where ethical standards have disappeared as a result of poor education is that crime rates will go through the roof. Even based on current levels of average ethics in the population, my statistical analysis predicts a doubling of the crime rate. Amongst the older generation, about 75% of people are basically honest. Since young people are not taught ethics, only about 10% of young people are honest. If this were the only factor, crime rates would be set to increase by a factor of four times over the next 25 years.
    So far, in this Blog we have been discussing expected crime rates based on reasonable models of behaviour. In practice, as I set out in my book ‘Future World’, there is another huge factor that will cause crime rates to increase beyond anything that can be imagined: hunger. Currently, in a typical country, very few people go hungry. I predict this to increase to 20% of the population by 2025, and to 40% of the population within 25 years. What a hungry person will do to get food is unimaginable, I discuss this elsewhere also. Crime rates are set to explode a thousand fold.'