Banner Ad 1

Collapse

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Actuarial analysis of Unemployment rate trends

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Actuarial analysis of Unemployment rate trends

    Here is a summary of my analysis for the UK. I believe that the US will not be very different.
    The true unemployment rate (including the excess of normal levels of youngsters economically inactive) is 9.3% and this is heading up step by step towards 43% in 23 years' time.

    UK 2013 2019 2025 2031 2037
    Unemployment rate Inactive Unemployment rate Inactive Unemployment rate Inactive Unemployment rate Inactive Unemployment rate Inactive
    18-24 18% 29% 25% 38% 35% 50% 45% 54% 45% 54%
    25-31 7% 16% 10% 25% 25% 38% 35% 50% 45% 54%
    32-38 5% 15% 7% 16% 10% 25% 25% 38% 35% 50%
    39-45 5% 15% 5% 15% 7% 16% 10% 25% 25% 38%
    46-52 5% 15% 5% 15% 5% 15% 7% 16% 10% 25%
    53-59 5% 30% 5% 30% 5% 30% 5% 30% 7% 31%
    60-66 5% 40% 5% 40% 5% 40% 5% 40% 5% 40%
    Total 7% 23% 9% 26% 13% 31% 19% 36% 25% 42%
    Total true unemployed 9.3% 13.4% 22.0% 32.6% 43.2%
Working...
X