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  • Possion distribution problem

    For this example I am getting 2e^(-2) and answer says 3e^(-2).

    The number of power surges in an electric grid has a Possion distribution with mean of 1 power surge every 12 hours. What is the probability that there will be no more than 1 power surge in 24 –hour period?

    Can anybody verify?

    Thanks

    Rup

  • #2
    The number of power surges in 24 hours will have a Poisson
    distribution with a mean of 2. Saying that there are no more than 1 power surge in 24 hours is the same as saying that there are either 0
    or 1 power surges in 24 hours. The probability of 0 power surges in
    24 hours is e^(-2) , and the probability of 1 power surge in 24
    hours is 2e^(-2) .

    Remember that for the Poisson random variable N
    with mean c, the probability P(N=k) is (c^k)(e^(-c))/k! .

    In this case P(N=1) = (2^1)(e^(-2))/1! = 2e^(-2) .
    Then P(N=0 or 1) = 3e^(-2) .
    Sam Broverman

    [email protected]
    www.sambroverman.com

    Comment


    • #3
      Re:

      Thanks, Sam! It was helpful.

      Comment

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